Mankind has only 760 years left. This was said by an extraordinary scientist, not an ordinary person. He did a very important prediction before this method. That prediction proved to be correct. That’s about the Berlin Wall. Therefore, we cannot dismiss what he says. That’s why we will talk about it in this article. What is this Doomsday Argument? Do we really have only 760 years left?
There are many ways for all life on Earth to disappear from the universe altogether. Scientists have identified such things. For example, they have discovered that a virus, a killer asteroid, a supernova explosion, or an alien attack could destroy all life on Earth. But this article is not about such methods.
According to a mathematical methodology, Mr Richard Gott explained that we have about 760 years to live on this planet. We cannot dismiss this opinion of Mr Richard Got. This is a prediction made according to a special methodology found in the Doomsday Argument. If you look at this Doomsday Argument, you will learn about the many models that determine the possibility of extinction of life from this world. One of the most notable of these is the Prediction by Richard Got, based on the Copernican Principle. He had previously made a very unique point in 1969 about the fall of the Berlin Wall in Berlin. It went exactly right. For that reason, we have to think about this prediction as well.
Mr Richard Gott remembered Nicholas Copernicus after walking with his friends in Berlin in 1969 and walking near to Berlin Wall. Nicolaus Copernicus’ Copernican Principle is very interesting. Copernicus, the great Renaissance astronomer, asserted that the Earth is not the centre of the universe. Over the past centuries, astronomers have generalized this claim to the credo that humanity’s position in the universe is unlikely to be central or special. Our sun is an ordinary star in an ordinary galaxy. The cosmic “you are here” dot says we’re smack in the middle of Randomville. To put it simply, he meant that none of us humans are special. The probability of having something special is very low.
So based on the fact that it’s not special, Mr Richard Gott did a small mathematical calculation according to the Copernicus’ Copernican Principle and said in 1969, that the Berlin Wall would be around only for another 24 years. Surprisingly, 21 years later, the Berlin Wall came down. So this prediction by Mr Richard Gott went exactly right. How did he make that calculation correctly and make that prediction? Below it is described in a simple way.
- The time duration between 1 and 2 is X.
- X = 1/4 * Full time duration.
- The time duration between 1 and 3 is 3X.
- So X < a < 3X
- And also we can see the time duration between 2 and 3 is 50% of the full-time duration.
There is a 50% chance for we are in the coloured zone. (2-3) So Mr Gott got that 50% chance and he think he is in the coloured zone.
Now let’s think he is in (a). We know X < a < 3X Then Mr. Gott wants to get the maximum time duration for the wall. When we think Y = 0 We can see the maximum time duration.
When Mr Gott creating this calculation the wall was 8 yrs old. So we can get X+Y = 8, and Y=0. So X=8, Now we can calculate the maximum time duration as 8*3=24 yrs So the wall was fall after 21 years and the Gott’s Logic came true.
So this is how Richard Gott proposed a prediction for the fall of the Berlin Wall.
It was by doing a similar calculation that he presented the prediction that human life would end in another 760 years. Let’s see how he calculated that prediction. Imagine a complete, chronological list of the human race: every person who ever lived or will have lived, sorted by time of birth. I will again represent it as a horizontal bar. Also from this method, Mr Got predicted the Doomsday Argument.
For this explanation, we have to use a different module from the first one.
We don’t know the total time duration. It may be billion, trillion years. But we can separate this timeline into two pieces (50%) Let’s think simply, Let’s think there are only 1000 humans. The number of future births will be less than the number of past births.
So Mr Gott is predicting we are in colored side.
Also, the scientists calculate there 100 billion humans were lived.
Let’s think we are on the colored side.
Let’s think you are number “a” person.
According to the research papers, we can see there are 130 million births for a year.
- We want to get the maximum number, so y=0
- So let’s think X = 100 billion
- X = Years that we have * births for a year
- So, years that we have = X/ births for a year
- 100 billion/130 million = 760 years
Now think carefully about the two predictions made by Mr Richard Got. Understand the calculations well. The chance of this going wrong is 50%. That 50% is further reduced according to the Copernicus’ Copernican Principle. Because we are not special creatures. The probability of the end of human life has increased according to the current state of the world. Philosophers and scientists explain various aspects of Doomsday about the end of human life.
Human life may not end in 760 years. But the probability of it having a day of destruction is high. Because there is some evidence of alien life on other planets in the universe, but no such alien life has yet been found. Perhaps such alien life is extinct. So we can suffer the same fate. Because according to Copernicus’ Copernican Principle, none of us is special beings.